Carrick future: Roma and Villa now decide his job

Michael Carrick says he will be in charge against Roma on Tuesday, and the club's own timetable gives him two more games after that. Our view on the Carrick future question is simple: Roma and Aston Villa are now a two-game review, so United should say what passing it looks like before a ball is kicked.

The Athletic's Laurie Whitwell posted on Saturday evening that United had decided on a plan, following this week's crisis talks, to get to the international break and then make an assessment of Carrick. A defeat at Chelsea, he added, was presumably baked in. It came, 2-0, and the full story of the 82 seconds that sank United at Stamford Bridge is why this week feels different from the last.

Carrick future: what he said after Chelsea

Asked by reporters, in comments carried by the Daily Mail, whether he would still be in charge for the Champions League game against Roma, Carrick replied: "Yes. I'm just looking forward to getting the boys ready for the midweek now."

It was put to him that seeing the club this low must hurt someone who has been at United as a player and coach for two decades. "Yeah, pretty much exactly that," he said. "There is a lot of emotion. We're a great football club and we want to win football matches. Things have gone against us in a big way and unravelled quickly."

He didn't pretend the table was lying, either. "There is no hiding from the fact that we haven't won enough games. There's no words that I'm going to explain to you now that makes it any different, it's not going to change it."

He said he didn't feel let down by Martínez. Those are straight answers, and they don't change the arithmetic.

The numbers Carrick is up against

The bare facts first. United are nine games without a win in all competitions, the club's first run like it since 1988. After Saturday's results they are 17th, on seven points from nine league games, level with Crystal Palace in 18th and kept out of the bottom three only by goal difference (minus five against Palace's minus 12).

Whitwell added two figures of his own: United took 1.81 points per game between 2013 and 2024, and 1.38 since. Over a 38-game season, that's the drop from about 69 points to about 52.

The bit that should worry the hierarchy is this. Seven points from nine games is 0.78 per game, about 56% of that already reduced post-2024 rate. Kept up over 38 games, it finishes on roughly 30 points. That's relegation form, and a good first half at Chelsea doesn't change it.

Europe offers no cover. United are 21st in the Champions League table on three points from three games, after beating Sabah and losing to Atlético Madrid and Como. That's inside the play-off places (ninth to 24th), with no room for another bad night.

Why Roma is the harder half of the test

Roma arrive at Old Trafford in form. Gian Piero Gasperini's side won 5-2 at Udinese on Saturday evening, four goals up inside 37 minutes, and moved to 24 points, one behind Inter and Lazio, who had still to play. Donyell Malen scored and was taken off on 59 minutes, with Tuesday in mind. Roma have scored 16 goals in their last four games: 4-0 against Slovan Bratislava, 3-3 at Napoli, 4-2 against Cagliari and now this. They're 15th in the Champions League table, a point ahead of United.

Against that, United's defence has a quirk worth spelling out. Lisandro Martínez was sent off for two bookings, which carries a one-match domestic ban. That ban falls on the next Premier League game, Villa, not on Roma, so he is eligible for Tuesday. Leny Yoro, meanwhile, served his European suspension for the red card in Madrid when he sat out the 4-1 defeat at Como, so he is available again in the Champions League.

So Carrick has a real choice for Roma: Harry Maguire, Matthijs de Ligt, Yoro and Martínez are all available. We said after Chelsea that Martínez shouldn't start on Tuesday, and we stand by it. There's a practical reason too. He can't play against Villa anyway, so picking a back line that is available for both games gives Carrick the same defence for five days, which this team hasn't had all autumn. Martínez's public criticism of the club's recruitment after Atlético only makes that call easier.

Villa, the away end and the break

Villa come to Old Trafford next Sunday, 8 November. They went into this weekend 12th, unbeaten in four league games with three wins, and they've won all three of their Champions League matches. They're a far better side than their league position suggests, and they were at home to Fulham on Saturday night.

The supporters, at least, haven't turned on the manager. They kept backing Carrick at Stamford Bridge while turning again on the Glazers, Sir Jim Ratcliffe and director of football Jason Wilcox. A crowd that blames the people above the manager should be behind the team on Tuesday, and Carrick needs his side to use that early.

Then comes the break, and the decision. As we covered on Friday, the compensation needed to prise Eddie Howe from Newcastle keeps falling, so money won't force United's hand. The harder problem is the split over who should come next. Reports this week said Wilcox favours Howe, while director of recruitment Christopher Vivell prefers Julian Nagelsmann. A fortnight without fixtures is the cleanest moment for a change, but only if the people making it already agree on the name.

The bar we'd set for Carrick

Four points from Roma and Villa, including a win, and the Carrick future question should be parked until the new year. That would end the winless run, give United breathing space above the bottom three and keep the Champions League campaign alive. It would also give him the break to work on a defence that keeps conceding soft goals.

Anything less and Omar Berrada and Wilcox have to walk into that fortnight with a successor already agreed, not start arguing about one on 9 November. Carrick has earned two fair games. United owe him a clear target for them, and owe the rest of us a decision the moment they're done.

Picture: Old Trafford seen from the road outside, by Steven Haslington via Wikimedia Commons, licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0. Cropped to 16:9.