Leeds vs Man Utd: Martínez in, Carrick digs in

Update (30 Oct): we called the score right and the team wrong. It finished 1-1, but Carrick switched to a back three with Bruno Fernandes as a nominal centre-forward, and Martínez went off at half-time with a thigh problem. Our Leeds 1-1 Man Utd report has the full story. The original preview follows.

Michael Carrick has drawn a line under the Lisandro Martínez row and put the Argentine in the squad for Sunday. That settles selection. It does not settle Elland Road.

Kick-off is 2pm, live on Sky Sports. United have one league win from six, sit three points behind Leeds, and Carrick has lost five of his last six meetings with Daniel Farke. If you were designing the worst possible fixture after this week, you'd struggle to do better.

"He's part of the squad"

Asked straight whether Martínez is available for Leeds, Carrick said: "He's part of the squad, yeah" (Manchester Evening News).

On the apology and the clear-the-air talks with Jason Wilcox and Omar Berrada, he was blunt. "He's released his statement and realised he made a mistake. That's enough for us to move on with," Carrick said. "We've moved on. Genuinely. There is a freshness about the group."

Our read: closing it publicly was the only play left. Martínez still has to show it on the pitch, and Elland Road is a brutal place to start that job. The full timeline is in our Martínez apology piece.

Shaw, Mainoo, Šeško: still no clear answers

The injury desk did not move much on Friday.

"We'll see on Luke and Kobbie. Ben is still undergoing a couple of checks," Carrick said. Before updating timelines on Benjamin Šeško, United want those checks finished. That means Šeško stays further away than Shaw and Mainoo, who both missed Atlético.

Confirmed from Carrick today

• Martínez is in the squad for Leeds.
• Shaw and Mainoo: wait-and-see, no firm Sunday call yet.
• Šeško: still being assessed; no timeline given.

Also out

• Patrick Dorgu (hamstring) and Manuel Ugarte (knee) remain longer-term absentees, as covered in our Man Utd injury news.

For Leeds, Daniel Farke told the Yorkshire Evening Post that Joe Rodon misses Sunday and Daniel James is back in training with a chance of being involved. Harry Wilson and Jean-Matteo Bahoya have trained properly after returning from the bench at Arsenal.

Six games, six points, one win over Ipswich

This is United's poorest start since 1986. The only league win came against Ipswich. We were 13th going into the weekend, three points behind Leeds.

The Spurs draw was the season in miniature. Bryan Mbeumo finished Matheus Cunha's cross on 73 minutes, Rodrigo Bentancur got sent off, and we still couldn't see it out. Sandro Tonali floated one in from the left in added time, Martínez didn't clear it, and Dominic Solanke headed past Senne Lammens.

Then Madrid. Pablo Barrios scored after 53 seconds, Leny Yoro was sent off, and Atlético won 2-0.

"I don't need results. We all need results"

Pressed on whether he personally needs a result at Leeds, Carrick snapped the framing. "I don't need results. We all need results. It's not about me; Manchester United is bigger than an individual," he said.

Fair point as a principle. Cold comfort as a standing. One league win in six is about the club whether he likes the wording or not.

He also pushed back on the idea that Martínez had ripped the dressing room apart, a line Wayne Rooney floated after Atlético. Carrick said Friday's training was "in a fantastic place" and that spirit from the outside chatter is not the same as spirit inside Carrington. We'll believe the training-ground claim when we see the first 20 minutes at Elland Road.

Where this gets won and lost

Carrick wants control of games. Against Spurs he had close to none: Lammens loose with the ball, Tielemans waiting for bounces, Yoro sliding in to rescue a scattered line.

Do that at Elland Road and you won't get away with it. Leeds have Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Noah Okafor. Containing Bruno Fernandes is still the obvious Leeds plan, and Carrick has already admitted our captain is "carrying something".

If Mainoo isn't fit, Carlos Baleba should start. His first touch off the bench against Spurs, a spin and flick into Fernandes, was the one midfield idea nobody else tried. Sitting deep and hoping won't work here.

Then there's left-back. Dorgu's out, Shaw's a doubt, and Leeds will go straight down that side if they smell a makeshift option. We've already laid out why that position keeps hurting us.

Our predicted XI

Based on the last two line-ups, Friday's squad update, and the injury list. It still hinges on Shaw and Mainoo.

4-2-3-1: Lammens; Yoro, Maguire, Martínez, Shaw (or Heaven); Tielemans, Mainoo (or Baleba); Mbeumo, Fernandes, Rashford; Cunha.

Yoro's red was in the Champions League, so it shouldn't rule him out of Premier League games. Martínez starting feels more likely than not after Carrick's answers.

Farke has Carrick's number

Five defeats in six. The only win came in a League Cup tie when Carrick was at Middlesbrough.

Carrick gave Farke his due on Friday: "Daniel has done a fantastic job... they have turned into a really good Premier League team". He's right. Leeds are seventh on nine points after six games. They also won the last meeting at Old Trafford, 2-1 in April. The 1-1 draw at Elland Road in January was Ruben Amorim's last game in charge.

Nothing about our last fortnight suggests that head-to-head flips on Sunday.

Leeds vs Man Utd prediction

Carrick has put Martínez in and told everyone the storm has passed. Fine. Elland Road does not care about press-conference closures.

Leeds are in better form, they're higher up, and their manager knows how to beat ours. On paper United have the better players. On evidence from the last fortnight, that paper is thin.

We'll say 1-1. It won't be enough, and Carrick knows it even if he won't say "I need this".